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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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