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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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