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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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