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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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