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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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