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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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