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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Planning Commission, India
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