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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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