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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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