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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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