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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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