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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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