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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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