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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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