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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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