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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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