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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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