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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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