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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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