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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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