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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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