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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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