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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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