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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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