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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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