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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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