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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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