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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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