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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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