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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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