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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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