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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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