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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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