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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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