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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- The University of Queensland
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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