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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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