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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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