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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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