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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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