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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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