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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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