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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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