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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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