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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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