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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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