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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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