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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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