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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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