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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
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Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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