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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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